I manage my own and a few friends’ portfolios. The return since inception (June 2018) till 31 December 2019 is 32% CAGR. The biggest contributors to the return were Manappuram, Muthoot, and MCX. The biggest detractors were Ambika, Max Ventures and BSE. I have written about Manappuram/ Muthoot before here. Both Manappuram and Muthoot are very profitable franchises and have a long runway ahead of them. They should continue to gain market share in the gold loan market both as the overall market grows as well as by taking market share away from unorganized moneylenders. There are risks in the business emanating from diversification, and they are of course exposed…
-
-
Manappuram / Muthoot – enduring or fleeting competitive advantage?
Manappuram and Muthoot are the most profitable NBFCs in India. You can see this from Figure 2 of an earlier post here. I’m using return on assets (ROA) as measure of profitability. ROA is the core profitability of the business without taking leverage into account. For FY18, the ROA of Manappuram and Muthoot was 4.8% (5.5% in FY17) and 5.5% (3.8% in FY17) respectively. The ROA for Manappuram and Muthoot for H1 FY19 was 4.6% and 5.6% respectively. An ROA of 2% is generally considered respectable for financial institutions and anything close to 5% is unheard of. So, the question is – what is so special about these two companies…
-
Sterlite – a complicated story
Introduction Sterlite is a vertically integrated manufacturer of fiber optic cables. The manufacturing of fiber optic cable starts from silicon chemicals which is converted into preform which is used to draw fiber which are combined to make the end product – fiber optic cable. Preform is a glass rod with extremely high purity and forms the core of the fiber. It is the most important component of the fiber optic cable and the quality of the cable derives to a large extent from the quality of the preform. The manufacturing of preform requires highly specialized manufacturing process. Preform is to optical fiber cable what software was to the computer industry.…
-
Oberoi Realty – quality real estate business
Following up from the first two articles about real estate (you can find them here and here). Since the articles were quite long, I’m going to summarise them here for convenience. So, the first article talks about the real estate cycle in India starting from the liberalization in 1991. We are currently in the second real estate cycle. The first cycle peaked in 1995 and the second cycle peaked in 2012-14 period. Currently, we are in the final stage of the second real estate cycle. While it is not clear when the third real estate cycle will start, it feels like we are close to the bottom because there is…
-
Mahindra Holidays – a melting ice cube?
Mahindra Holidays is a company which sells vacation ownership for 7 days per year for 25 years – also known as timeshare. The company earns revenue from one time admission fee plus annual membership fee over the period of 25 years. In addition, it earns revenue from selling food and beverages at its resorts. The business has a market capitalization of INR 2,600cr. They have total assets of more than INR 6,000cr. Out of this 6,000cr, they have land + other fixed assets + receivables + cash of 4,309 cr. Out of this, they have land + receivables + cash of 3,438cr. Out of this they have land + cash…
-
Narayana Hrudayalaya – Building an affordable model of healthcare at scale
Hospitals provide a necessary service and are hence relatively immune to economic cycles. On the other hand, it is a highly capital intensive business and is inherently riskier to that extent. For capital intensive businesses such as hospitals, the capital expenditure required is more than the cash generated from operations especially during the growth phase of the business. Most of the hospital chains currently in India are in their growth phase and hence have negative free cash flows as can be seen from the table below. Kovai has a positive cash flow as they derive a majority of their revenues (88%) from one single multi-specialty hospital. NH (2011-18) NH (2011-18)…
-
MCX – time is a friend for this business
I want to find businesses which get better with time like aged whisky. These are businesses which have a competitive advantage which is not only sustainable but grows over time. And that led me to the concept of businesses for which time is a friend. Businesses go through cycles and however strong the business may be, it will face its share of difficult times. These could be due to an external reason such as industry or economy-wide slowdown or due to internal reasons specific to the business. Most business struggle to survive during these so called downcycles. But are there businesses which handle the adversity well and emerge stronger with…
-
Opportunity in financials in India
Introduction Companies in the financial sector in India including banks and NBFIs have created tremendous amount of value over the years. There is a good reason for that. As I have discussed in one of the previous articles as well, it is rare to find businesses which have high returns on capital and at the same time have ample opportunities to reinvest the capital at the same high returns in the core business. If such businesses exist they can be the dream compounding machines. Financials is one space where companies with good business models can do exactly that. This has been addressed in an article I read by Saumil Zaveri…
-
Hawkins Cookers – An Enduring Moat
Introduction In this article, I want to talk about a business which will be any value investors’ delight. It would surely be a favorite of Warren Buffet. The company in question is Hawkins Cookers and any investor in India would have surely heard of it. This is a well-known story with a narrative which is familiar to most. If not let me lay it out briefly at the outset and then go into the details. Hawkins is engaged in manufacturing and marketing pressure cookers and other cookware for Indian households. They have built a reputation for manufacturing high quality products and is a well-known brand in India. In terms of…
-
Ambika Cotton Mills Ltd. – Quality Cotton Yarn Manufacturer
Introduction Ambika Cotton is engaged in the production of specialty cotton yarn which is used in the manufacturing of premium quality shirts and t-shirts. While yarn manufacturing is a commodity business, Ambika has managed to carve out a profitable niche for themselves. Consistent with the commodity nature of the business, most other companies’ margins fluctuate with the raw materials. Also, as we will see the spinning sector is characterized by over-investments during the recovery cycle, which leads to overcapacity and depressed pricing thereafter during the downturn. We will also see how in this industry Ambika has stood apart from the bunch and differentiated itself. There are two aspects to…